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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 1.76% upward in the past 60 days and is pegged at $2.89 per share. Additionally, the consensus mark implies a 5.47% uptick from the year-ago actual. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $6.11 billion, indicating a 1.7% upside from the year-ago actual.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Union Pacific’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 1.18%. However, the company’s earnings lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the remaining two quarters (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s see how things have shaped up for Union Pacific this earnings season.
Factors to Note Ahead of UNP’s Q2 Earnings Release
We expect Union Pacific's performance in the to-be-reported period to have been adversely affected by the woes of the freight market downturn and a soft consumer market. Our estimate for freight revenues is pegged at $5.7 billion, which indicates a decline from first-quarter 2025 actuals. Meanwhile, estimates for other revenues are pegged at $339.8 million, calling for a 1.1% increase from fourth-quarter 2024 actuals.
UNP’s efforts to cut costs to combat revenue woes are expected to have aided bottom-line performance in the quarter to be reported. Due to cost cuts and improved operational efficiency, we expect operating expenses to decline in the second quarter of 2025 from the year-ago actuals. Due to reduced costs, we expect the operating ratio (operating expenses as a percentage of revenues) to have improved 20 basis points to 60.2% in the June quarter.
UNP is also focused on rewarding its shareholders. Strong free cash flow supports the shareholder-friendly activities of the company. Union Pacific's long-term capital allocation strategy remains unchanged, with a capital plan of $3.4 billion and share repurchases ranging from $4 to $4.5 billion. Such shareholder-friendly moves reflect the company’s financial bliss.
What Our Model Says About UNP
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Union Pacific this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Union Pacific has an Earnings ESP of +0.50% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Union Pacific's first-quarter 2025 earnings of $2.70 per share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.73. However, the bottom line improved 0.4% on a year-over-year basis. The year-over-year increase was due to strong operational efficiency and favorable pricing.
Operating revenues of $6.03 billion lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.09 billion. The top line declined 0.07% on a year-over-year basis due to lower fuel surcharge revenues, an unfavorable business mix and lower other revenues.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
SkyWest, founded in 1972, is based in St. George and operates regional jets for major U.S. airlines. SKYW is the holding company for SkyWest Airlines, SkyWest Charter and SkyWest Leasing, an aircraft leasing company.
SKYW has an impressive earnings surprise track record, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, the average beat being 17.1%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SKYW’s second-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 1.30% upward in the past 60 days. SKYW’s second-quarter 2025 earnings are expected to grow 28.5% year over year.
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX - Free Report) ) has an Earnings ESP of +3.22% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. KNX is scheduled to report second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 23.
KNX’s second-quarter 2025 earnings are expected to grow 41.67% year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KNX’s second-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised downward by 2.86% to 34 cents per share in the past 60 days. KNX’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters (missed the mark in the remaining quarter), the average beat being 3.25%.
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Union Pacific to Report Q2 Earnings: Is a Beat in Store for the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2025 results on July 24, before market open.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 1.76% upward in the past 60 days and is pegged at $2.89 per share. Additionally, the consensus mark implies a 5.47% uptick from the year-ago actual. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $6.11 billion, indicating a 1.7% upside from the year-ago actual.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Union Pacific’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 1.18%. However, the company’s earnings lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the remaining two quarters (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s see how things have shaped up for Union Pacific this earnings season.
Factors to Note Ahead of UNP’s Q2 Earnings Release
We expect Union Pacific's performance in the to-be-reported period to have been adversely affected by the woes of the freight market downturn and a soft consumer market. Our estimate for freight revenues is pegged at $5.7 billion, which indicates a decline from first-quarter 2025 actuals. Meanwhile, estimates for other revenues are pegged at $339.8 million, calling for a 1.1% increase from fourth-quarter 2024 actuals.
UNP’s efforts to cut costs to combat revenue woes are expected to have aided bottom-line performance in the quarter to be reported. Due to cost cuts and improved operational efficiency, we expect operating expenses to decline in the second quarter of 2025 from the year-ago actuals. Due to reduced costs, we expect the operating ratio (operating expenses as a percentage of revenues) to have improved 20 basis points to 60.2% in the June quarter.
UNP is also focused on rewarding its shareholders. Strong free cash flow supports the shareholder-friendly activities of the company. Union Pacific's long-term capital allocation strategy remains unchanged, with a capital plan of $3.4 billion and share repurchases ranging from $4 to $4.5 billion. Such shareholder-friendly moves reflect the company’s financial bliss.
What Our Model Says About UNP
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Union Pacific this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Union Pacific has an Earnings ESP of +0.50% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Union Pacific Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Union Pacific Corporation price-eps-surprise | Union Pacific Corporation Quote
Highlights of UNP’s Q1 Earnings
Union Pacific's first-quarter 2025 earnings of $2.70 per share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.73. However, the bottom line improved 0.4% on a year-over-year basis. The year-over-year increase was due to strong operational efficiency and favorable pricing.
Operating revenues of $6.03 billion lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.09 billion. The top line declined 0.07% on a year-over-year basis due to lower fuel surcharge revenues, an unfavorable business mix and lower other revenues.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
SkyWest, Inc.(SKYW - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.06% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. SKYW is scheduled to report second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 24. You can seethe complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
SkyWest, founded in 1972, is based in St. George and operates regional jets for major U.S. airlines. SKYW is the holding company for SkyWest Airlines, SkyWest Charter and SkyWest Leasing, an aircraft leasing company.
SKYW has an impressive earnings surprise track record, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, the average beat being 17.1%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SKYW’s second-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 1.30% upward in the past 60 days. SKYW’s second-quarter 2025 earnings are expected to grow 28.5% year over year.
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX - Free Report) ) has an Earnings ESP of +3.22% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. KNX is scheduled to report second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 23.
KNX’s second-quarter 2025 earnings are expected to grow 41.67% year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KNX’s second-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised downward by 2.86% to 34 cents per share in the past 60 days. KNX’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters (missed the mark in the remaining quarter), the average beat being 3.25%.